Paleoclimate data assimilation with CLIMBER-X: An ensemble Kalman filter for the last deglaciation.

Using the climate model CLIMBER-X, we present an efficient method for assimilating the temporal evolution of surface temperatures for the last deglaciation covering the period 22000 to 6500 years before the present. The data assimilation methodology combines the data and the underlying dynamical principles governing the climate system to provide a state estimate of the system, which is better than that which could be obtained using just the data or the model alone. In applying an ensemble Kalman filter approach, we make use of the advances in the parallel data assimilation framework (PDAF), which provides parallel data assimilation functionality with a relatively small increase in computation time. We find that the data assimilation solution depends strongly on the background evolution of the decaying ice sheets rather than the assimilated temperatures. Two different ice sheet reconstructions result in a different deglacial meltwater history, affecting the large-scale ocean circulation and, consequently, the surface temperature. We find that the influence of data assimilation is more pronounced on regional scales than on the global mean. In particular, data assimilation has a stronger effect during millennial warming and cooling phases, such as the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas, especially at high latitudes with heterogeneous temperature patterns. Our approach is a step toward a comprehensive paleo-reanalysis on multi-millennial time scales, including incorporating available paleoclimate data and accounting for their uncertainties in representing regional climates.

Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years.

Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall (WAMR) has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean-atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only indices that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. At the interannual-to-decadal timescale, WAMR variability is largely influenced by Pacific-Atlantic - Mediterranean Sea teleconnections in all simulations; the exact configurations are model sensitive. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability depicts marked multi-centennial oscillations, with La Niña/negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weakening and/or poleward shift of subtropical high-pressure systems over the Atlantic favoring wet WAMR anomalies. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability also depicts an overall decreasing trend throughout the Holocene that is consistent among the simulations. This decreasing trend relates to changes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature variability. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-07023-y.

Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent.

Climate indices are often used as a climate monitoring tool, allowing us to understand how the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events are changing over time. Here, based on complex statistical analysis we identify highly correlated significant pairs of compound events at the highest spatial resolution, on a monthly temporal scale across Europe. Continental-scale monthly analysis unleashes information on compound events such as high-risk zones, hotspots, monthly shifts of hotspots and trends, risk exposure to land cover and population, and identification of maximum increasing trends. While there are many studies on single or compound climate extremes there are only a few studies that addresses the relationship between pairs of hazards, the incorporation of bioclimatic indices, the determination of a grid best-fit copula approach, and the outlining relevance of this work of compound event risks with exposures. In this respect, here, using 27-bivariate and 10-trivariate copula models, we show that the different hazard pairs have high combined risks of indices related to radiation, temperature, evapotranspiration, bioclimatic-based indices, such as the universal thermal climate index, wind chill index, and heat index, mainly over the northern and eastern European countries. Furthermore, we show that over the last 7 decades, agricultural and coastal areas are highly exposed to the risks of defined hotspots of compound events. In some of the hotspots of compound events-identified by clusters, there is no monthly shifts of hotspots, leading to higher impacts when compounded. Future work needs to integrate the framework and process to identify other compound pairs.

Highly restricted near-surface permafrost extent during the mid-Pliocene warm period.

Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth's past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near-surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near-surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near-surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near-surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world.

Large-scale sea ice-Surface temperature variability linked to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Due to its involvement in numerous feedbacks, sea ice plays a crucial role not only for polar climate but also at global scale. We analyse state-of-the-art observed, reconstructed, and modelled sea-ice concentration (SIC) together with sea surface temperature (SST) to disentangle the influence of different forcing factors on the variability of these coupled fields. Canonical Correlation Analysis provides distinct pairs of coupled Arctic SIC-Atlantic SST variability which are linked to prominent oceanic and atmospheric modes of variability over the period 1854-2017. The first pair captures the behaviour of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) while the third and can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in a physically consistent manner. The dominant global SIC-Atlantic SST coupled mode highlights the contrast between the responses of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to changes in AMOC over the 1959-2021 period. Model results indicate that coupled SST-SIC patterns can be associated with changes in ocean circulation. We conclude that a correct representation of AMOC-induced coupled SST-SIC variability in climate models is essential to understand the past, present and future sea-ice evolution.

Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth.

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on the time-scale of several centuries by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. The statistical models we propose are applied to annual maxima of daily temperature data from fully coupled climate models spanning the years 1850 through 2300. They enable us to investigate how extremes will change depending on the geographic location not only in terms of the magnitude, but also in terms of the timing of the changes. We find that in general, changes in extremes are stronger and more rapid over land masses than over oceans. In addition, our statistical models allow for changes in the different parameters of the fitted generalized extreme value distributions (a location, a scale and a shape parameter) to take place independently and at varying time periods. Different statistical models are presented and the Bayesian Information Criterion is used for model selection. It turns out that in most regions, changes in mean and variance take place simultaneously while the shape parameter of the distribution is predicted to stay constant. In the Arctic region, however, a different picture emerges: There, climate variability is predicted to increase rather quickly in the second half of the twenty-first century, probably due to the melting of ice, whereas changes in the mean values take longer and come into effect later.

Enhanced Arctic sea ice melting controlled by larger heat discharge of mid-Holocene rivers.

Arctic sea ice retreat is linked to extrapolar thermal energy import, while the potential impact of pan-Arctic river heat discharge on sea-ice loss has been unresolved. We reconstructed the Holocene history of Arctic sea ice and Russian pan-Arctic river heat discharge, combining ice-rafted debris records and sedimentation rates from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf with a compilation of published paleoclimate and observational data. In the mid-Holocene, the early summer (June-July) solar insolation was higher than that during the late Holocene, which led to a larger heat discharge of the Russian pan-Arctic rivers and contributed to more Arctic sea ice retreat. This intensified decline of early-summer sea ice accelerated the melting of sea ice throughout the summertime by lowering regional albedos. Our findings highlight the important impact of the larger heat discharge of pan-Arctic rivers, which can reinforce Arctic sea-ice loss in the summer in the context of global warming.

Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks.

Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO2 levels (pCO2) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO2. Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO2 forcing.

Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18-17 ka and 6-5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland's climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately.

A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years.

The evolution of past global ice sheets is highly uncertain. One example is the missing ice problem during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26 000-19 000 years before present) - an apparent 8-28 m discrepancy between far-field sea level indicators and modelled sea level from ice sheet reconstructions. In the absence of ice sheet reconstructions, researchers often use marine δ18O proxy records to infer ice volume prior to the LGM. We present a global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years, called PaleoMIST 1.0, constructed independently of far-field sea level and δ18O proxy records. Our reconstruction is compatible with LGM far-field sea-level records without requiring extra ice volume, thus solving the missing ice problem. However, for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57 000-29 000 years before present) - a pre-LGM period - our reconstruction does not match proxy-based sea level reconstructions, indicating the relationship between marine δ18O and sea level may be more complex than assumed.

Drier tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2-3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

Temperate rainforests near the South Pole during peak Cretaceous warmth.

The mid-Cretaceous period was one of the warmest intervals of the past 140 million years1-5, driven by atmospheric carbon dioxide levels of around 1,000 parts per million by volume6. In the near absence of proximal geological records from south of the Antarctic Circle, it is disputed whether polar ice could exist under such environmental conditions. Here we use a sedimentary sequence recovered from the West Antarctic shelf-the southernmost Cretaceous record reported so far-and show that a temperate lowland rainforest environment existed at a palaeolatitude of about 82° S during the Turonian-Santonian age (92 to 83 million years ago). This record contains an intact 3-metre-long network of in situ fossil roots embedded in a mudstone matrix containing diverse pollen and spores. A climate model simulation shows that the reconstructed temperate climate at this high latitude requires a combination of both atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 1,120-1,680 parts per million by volume and a vegetated land surface without major Antarctic glaciation, highlighting the important cooling effect exerted by ice albedo under high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Reconciling glacial Antarctic water stable isotopes with ice sheet topography and the isotopic paleothermometer.

Stable water isotope records from Antarctica are key for our understanding of Quaternary climate variations. However, the exact quantitative interpretation of these important climate proxy records in terms of surface temperature, ice sheet height and other climatic changes is still a matter of debate. Here we report results obtained with an atmospheric general circulation model equipped with water isotopes, run at a high-spatial horizontal resolution of one-by-one degree. Comparing different glacial maximum ice sheet reconstructions, a best model data match is achieved for the PMIP3 reconstruction. Reduced West Antarctic elevation changes between 400 and 800 m lead to further improved agreement with ice core data. Our modern and glacial climate simulations support the validity of the isotopic paleothermometer approach based on the use of present-day observations and reveal that a glacial ocean state as displayed in the GLAMAP reconstruction is suitable for capturing the observed glacial isotope changes in Antarctic ice cores.

Publisher Correction: Spatio-temporal variability of processes across Antarctic ice-bed-ocean interfaces.

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of the author Florence Colleoni, which was incorrectly given as Florence Colloni. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Spatio-temporal variability of processes across Antarctic ice-bed-ocean interfaces.

Understanding how the Antarctic ice sheet will respond to global warming relies on knowledge of how it has behaved in the past. The use of numerical models, the only means to quantitatively predict the future, is hindered by limitations to topographic data both now and in the past, and in knowledge of how subsurface oceanic, glaciological and hydrological processes interact. Incorporating the variety and interplay of such processes, operating at multiple spatio-temporal scales, is critical to modeling the Antarctic's system evolution and requires direct observations in challenging locations. As these processes do not observe disciplinary boundaries neither should our future research.

Rapid shift and millennial-scale variations in Holocene North Pacific Intermediate Water ventilation.

The Pacific hosts the largest oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in the world ocean, which are thought to intensify and expand under future climate change, with significant consequences for marine ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and fisheries. At present, no deep ventilation occurs in the North Pacific due to a persistent halocline, but relatively better-oxygenated subsurface North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) mitigates OMZ development in lower latitudes. Over the past decades, instrumental data show decreasing oxygenation in NPIW; however, long-term variations in middepth ventilation are potentially large, obscuring anthropogenic influences against millennial-scale natural background shifts. Here, we use paleoceanographic proxy evidence from the Okhotsk Sea, the foremost North Pacific ventilation region, to show that its modern oxygenated pattern is a relatively recent feature, with little to no ventilation before six thousand years ago, constituting an apparent Early-Middle Holocene (EMH) threshold or "tipping point." Complementary paleomodeling results likewise indicate a warmer, saltier EMH NPIW, different from its modern conditions. During the EMH, the Okhotsk Sea switched from a modern oxygenation source to a sink, through a combination of sea ice loss, higher water temperatures, and remineralization rates, inhibiting ventilation. We estimate a strongly decreased EMH NPIW oxygenation of ∼30 to 50%, and increased middepth Pacific nutrient concentrations and carbon storage. Our results (i) imply that under past or future warmer-than-present conditions, oceanic biogeochemical feedback mechanisms may change or even switch direction, and (ii) provide constraints on the high-latitude North Pacific's influence on mesopelagic ventilation dynamics, with consequences for large oceanic regions.

Arctic Ocean sea ice cover during the penultimate glacial and the last interglacial.

Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades and climate scenarios suggest that sea ice may completely disappear during summer within the next about 50-100 years. Here we produce Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy records for the penultimate glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 6) and the subsequent last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e). The latter is a time interval when the high latitudes were significantly warmer than today. We document that even under such warmer climate conditions, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Our proxy reconstruction of the last interglacial sea ice cover is supported by climate simulations, although some proxy data/model inconsistencies still exist. During late Marine Isotope Stage 6, polynya-type conditions occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins, contradicting a giant Marine Isotope Stage 6 ice shelf that covered the entire Arctic Ocean.Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades. Here, using biomarker records, the authors show that permanent sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean during the last interglacial, when high latitudes were warmer than present.

Sea level fall during glaciation stabilized atmospheric CO2 by enhanced volcanic degassing.

Paleo-climate records and geodynamic modelling indicate the existence of complex interactions between glacial sea level changes, volcanic degassing and atmospheric CO2, which may have modulated the climate system's descent into the last ice age. Between ∼85 and 70 kyr ago, during an interval of decreasing axial tilt, the orbital component in global temperature records gradually declined, while atmospheric CO2, instead of continuing its long-term correlation with Antarctic temperature, remained relatively stable. Here, based on novel global geodynamic models and the joint interpretation of paleo-proxy data as well as biogeochemical simulations, we show that a sea level fall in this interval caused enhanced pressure-release melting in the uppermost mantle, which may have induced a surge in magma and CO2 fluxes from mid-ocean ridges and oceanic hotspot volcanoes. Our results reveal a hitherto unrecognized negative feedback between glaciation and atmospheric CO2 predominantly controlled by marine volcanism on multi-millennial timescales of ∼5,000-15,000 years.

Threshold in North Atlantic-Arctic Ocean circulation controlled by the subsidence of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge.

High latitude ocean gateway changes are thought to play a key role in Cenozoic climate evolution. However, the underlying ocean dynamics are poorly understood. Here we use a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model to investigate the effect of ocean gateway formation that is associated with the subsidence of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. We find a threshold in sill depth (∼50 m) that is linked to the influence of wind mixing. Sill depth changes within the wind mixed layer establish lagoonal and estuarine conditions with limited exchange across the sill resulting in brackish or even fresher Arctic conditions. Close to the threshold the ocean regime is highly sensitive to changes in atmospheric CO2 and the associated modulation in the hydrological cycle. For larger sill depths a bi-directional flow regime across the ridge develops, providing a baseline for the final step towards the establishment of a modern prototype North Atlantic-Arctic water exchange.